Foreign Exchange Trading
Without foreign exchange trading, international trade itself could not exist. In former times trade was based on bartering — goods were exchanged for other goods. The introduction of precious metals (i. e. gold and silver) to pay for goods can be considered the forerunner of the foreign exchange market.
The Greeks and Romans commonly used gold as a medium of exchange. Most world trade continued to be based on gold until the nineteenth century. By then industrialization in Western Europe and the United States had boosted world trade to such an extent that gold reserves were no longer adequate to meet the requirements. Governments introduced a par value of their respective local currencies in gold. Thus, the currencies were related to one another through a system called the gold standard. The United States joined this system in 1879. The gold standard system determined the value of all currencies based on gold. This meant the values of different currencies could be compared in terms of one another.
The system worked well until World War I, when trade was interrupted. After the war, currencies fluctuated widely in terms of gold and, thus, in relation to each other. The value of currencies was meant to be regulated by supply and demand (the market mechanism), but speculators often interfered with this mechanism. So in an effort to create more stable exchange markets, some countries, notably the United States, England, and France, returned to the gold standard. Except for a brief period in the early 1930s, the United States stayed on the gold standard. By 1971 it was the only country whose currency remained convertible into gold, and so, by declaring the dollar inconvertible, the gold standard was finally abolished. This meant that holders of United States dollars could no longer exchange their dollars for gold at par value.
In 1944 toward the end of World War II, the Western industrialized nations realized that foreign trade would be necessary to quickly and effectively heal the wounds of war. To create a calm and stable foreign exchange market, the United States government called for a conference in the summer of 1944. It was held in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. At this conference, both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development were established.
The Bretton Woods Agreement stipulated that all member countries would express the value of their currencies in gold. However, only the United States dollar was convertible into gold, at the price of $ 35 an ounce.
Central banks of the member countries were required to intervene in the foreign exchange markets to keep the value of their currencies within 1 percent of the par value. This intervention was achieved by actively buying or selling foreign exchange or gold. A given currency could, therefore, never rise above nor fall below fixed points, which are called intervention points. These are the prices beyond which the central bank intervenes. This is called the system of fixed exchange rates.
The system of fixed exchange rates worked well until the late 1960s and early 1970s. At that time a number of countries devalued their currencies. This meant that their currencies were now worth less in terms of gold. England in 1967, France in 1969, and the United States in 1971 and 1973, devalued their currencies. This caused an almost unprecedented turbulence in the foreign exchange markets. In addition, countries such as West Germany and Holland revalued their currencies (increased the par value of their currencies in terms of gold) . Intervention by central banks became very costly. Foreign currency and gold reserves were drained. Countries had to buy their own currency with gold and foreign exchange in order to keep its value above the minimum intervention point, as agreed at Bretton Woods.
It is not surprising, then, that the world saw a return to a floating exchange rate system. Central banks were no longer required to support their own currencies. England, France ( only temporarily ) , Italy, Japan, and the United States all floated their currencies. Western Europe, united in the Common Market, moved to preserve the fixed-rate system but allowed a widening of the intervention points to within 2.25 percent of the par value of the currencies. This system became known as the snake since these currencies move up and down together against currencies outside the snake. The British and the Italians, now members of the Common Market, are expected to eventually join their currencies to the snake.
The foreign exchange market is the mechanism through which foreign currencies are traded. It is not an actual marketplace but a system of telephone and telex communications between banks, customers, and middlemen (foreign exchange brokers, acting for a client vis-a-vis the bank).
Most banks have a special foreign exchange trading department, which consists of foreign exchange dealers and an administrative staff. Customers trade with banks, banks trade among themselves, and brokers often trade on behalf of banks or corporations. Active participants in the foreign exchange market include tourists, investors, exporters and importers, and governments, whose central banks intervene in the markets to minimize fluctuations in their currencies.
The market consists of spot and forward transactions. When a French father transfers money to his son in new York, a typical spot transaction occurs. The French father buys the dollars spot — for immediate delivery — although business practice allows two days for actual delivery. This permits sufficient time to consummate the transaction. The French father, of course, pays for the dollars with his own currency, that is, French francs.
A forward transaction means that delivery of a currency is specified to take place at a future date. Japanese exporters of Toyota care to the United States know from their sales contracts that they will receive a specified United States dollar amount in six months. In order to protect themselves against fluctuating exchange sales, they can sell the dollars forward six months to their bank in Japan in return for yen. Payment and delivery are not required until six months later. The rate of exchange is fixed, however, on the date of the contract. Forward rates are usually quoted on a 30-, 90-, or 180-day basis, but major currencies can have any maturity up to a year and sometimes longer.
Dealers, having concluded a forward contract, should always hedge with an offsetting contract, so as not to leave their position open. For example, if they buy forward thirty days, they should immediately sell forward thirty days for the same amount. Obviously, traders try to realize a profit margin between the two transactions. If dealers do not equalize their position, they are said to speculate. If they buy currency forward without selling forward at the same time, this position is known as long; if they sell a currency forward without buying forward at the same time, this is called short. Such behavior can be disastrous if the exchange rates change rapidly. For instance, suppose that a French company concludes a contract with an American importer, promising to deliver a certain commodity in six months valued at 1,000,000 French francs. At the exchange rate of 22 cents for one franc, the French company expects to receive $ 220,000. If the franc rises to the dollar rate of 23 cents within six months, and the French company does not sell dollars forward, only 956,521.72 francs will be obtained. Since it cost 1,000,000 francs to deliver the original com¬modities, the French company would lose 43,478.28 francs.
Forward rates can be quoted either outright or in terms of a premium or discount on the spot rate. The following table of British pounds shows outright quotations. A bid is the price dealers will pay to acquire pounds. An offer is the price they will sell the pounds for.
Bid Offer Offer
One month forward $ 1.7895 $1.7915
Three months forward $ 1.7695 $ 1.7715
Six months forward $ 1.7445 $ 1.7465
Arbitrage is the practice of transferring funds from one currency to an¬other to benefit from rate differentials. For instance, local supply and de¬mand factors may result in a dollar spot rate in London that differs from the rate in New York. If the spot rate is higher in London, and arbitrage dealer would quickly buy dollars with pounds in New York and sell the dollars in London for pounds. Such arbitraging makes sense only if transaction costs (cable, paperwork, etc.) are covered and a small profit is realized. Oppor¬tunities to realize big profits do not exist in this type of arbitraging, since communication systems today make the price, and therefore profit opportu¬nities, available to everyone.
Another form of arbitrage is interest arbitrage. If interest rates in England are 2 percent higher than in the United States money market, a United States investor would do well to change United States dollars into pounds sterling and then invest the sterling at the English interest rate. However, the exchange rate discount of sterling is 1 percent. The investor will have to buy back dollars at a 1 percent premium, thus losing 1 percent. Still, the investor makes an overall gain of 1 percent. Of course, such transactions can only be realized in the absence of foreign exchange regulations, such as capital transfer limitations, which are sometimes imposed by governments. Such restrictions serve to protect a country' s foreign exchange and gold reserves and, therefore, its balance of payments.
The foreign exchange market is an extremely valuable mechanism for world trade. Its main function is to reduce the risk of fluctuating exchange rates or of a change in the parity of currencies (devaluation or revaluation).
外匯買賣
要是沒有外匯買賣，國際間的貿(mào)易就無法進(jìn)行。古時，貿(mào)易是以貨易貨的形式，即物物交換。后來采用金銀貴金屬支付貿(mào)易貨款，這種辦法可視作外匯市場的前身。
古希臘人古羅馬人通常用黃金作交換媒介。19世紀(jì)前，世界上大多數(shù)國家的對外貿(mào)易用黃金支付、結(jié)算。到19世紀(jì)，由于西歐 和美國的工業(yè)化進(jìn)程促進(jìn)了世界貿(mào)易的飛速發(fā)展，以致黃金儲備 不敷需要。各國政府對本國貨幣規(guī)定了含金量，即規(guī)定了黃金平價。于是，各國貨幣通過稱之為金本位的制度，互相聯(lián)系在一起。 美國是1879年參加金本位制的。金本位制決定了所有以黃金為基 礎(chǔ)的貨幣的價值，這意味著不同貨幣的價值彼此間可以進(jìn)行比較了。
金本位制在第一次世界大戰(zhàn)前發(fā)揮了良好的作用，直到大戰(zhàn) 開始國際貿(mào)易中斷為止。戰(zhàn)后，各國貨幣與金價比，波動的幅度甚大，也就是各國貨幣之間的比價波幅甚大。貨幣的價格本應(yīng)受供 求這一市場機(jī)制調(diào)節(jié)，但是，投機(jī)者往往對之干擾。因此，為穩(wěn)定 外匯市場，有些國家，主要是英、美、法，又恢復(fù)實行金本位制。美國除了 30年代初有一段短暫時間外，一直實行金本位制。1971年 前，美國是唯一能把本國貨幣兌換成黃金的國家；正因為如此，當(dāng) 美國宣布美元停止兌換黃金后，金本位制從此就消聲匿跡，就是說，美元持有者今后再也不能按黃金平價要求把美元換成黃金了。 1944年，正值第二次世界大戰(zhàn)即將結(jié)束之際，西方工業(yè)國就意 識到，為了迅速治愈戰(zhàn)爭創(chuàng)傷，發(fā)展對外貿(mào)易勢在必行。為了創(chuàng)造一個穩(wěn)定平靜的外匯市場，美國政府倡議于1944年夏召開一次會 議，這次會議在美國新罕布什州的布雷頓森林如期舉行。國際貨 幣基金組織和國際復(fù)興開發(fā)銀行就是在這次會議上決定成立的。
布雷頓森林會議的協(xié)議規(guī)定：所有成員國都要用黃金來表示本國貨幣的價值。但是，只有美元才能按每盎司35美元的價格兌 換成黃金。
協(xié)議還要求成員國的中央銀行對外匯市場進(jìn)行干預(yù)，確保本國貨幣的價值維持在黃金平價± 1%的波動幅度內(nèi)。干預(yù)的辦法 是積極買賣外匯或黃金。因此，任一特定貨幣的升幅跌幅不得高 于或低于固定點，這就是所謂干預(yù)點，是各國中央銀行進(jìn)行干預(yù)的 上下限。這種匯率制度稱為固定匯率制。
固定匯率制一直正常運作到60年代末70年代初才發(fā)生了變化。當(dāng)時，有幾國對本國貨幣進(jìn)行了法定貶值。所謂法定貶值,是 政府宣布貨幣的金量減少。英國在1967年，法國在1969年，美國 在1971年和1973年分別對本幣實行貶值。這一狀況在外匯市場 上引起了前所未有的騷動。此外，西德荷蘭諸國則對本幣升值，也就是宣布提高本幣的黃金平價。各國中央銀行為了干預(yù)外江市場 付出了昂貴的代價，耗盡了本國的黃金外匯儲備，因為他們?yōu)榱耸?本幣價格不致降到布雷頓森林會議規(guī)定的干預(yù)點（下限）以下，被迫用黃金外匯買入本幣。
在這種情況下，世界各國改而恢復(fù)浮動匯率制就不足為怪了。 實行浮動匯率制后，各國中央銀行就無需維持本幣的匯價了。英、 法、意、日、美等國都實行浮動匯率（法國暫時浮動）。參加共同市場的西歐國家，他們之間仍舊保持固定匯率制，但把干預(yù)點（即上下限)擴(kuò)大到貨幣平價的±2.25%。這種制度就是眾所周知的蛇形浮動制，參加蛇形浮動的國家對集團(tuán)以外的國家，則實行聯(lián)合浮動。英國與意大利（共同體成員國）可望最終也參加蛇形浮動。
外匯市場是進(jìn)行外匯交易的機(jī)制或渠道，它不是一個有形市場，而是把銀行、客戶、中間人（即代表客戶向銀行買賣外匯的外匯 經(jīng)紀(jì)商)聯(lián)結(jié)在一起的電話、電傳通訊網(wǎng)絡(luò)。
大多數(shù)銀行設(shè)有專門進(jìn)行外匯交易的部門，由銀行的外匯交易員和銀行辦事員組成。客戶與銀行間，銀行與銀行間逬行外匯買賣；外匯經(jīng)紀(jì)商則代表銀行或公司承做外匯交易。外匯市場的 積極參與者包括：出國旅游者、對外投資者、進(jìn)出口商和各國政府； 后者的中央銀行為了盡量減低本幣波動幅度而干預(yù)外匯市場。
外匯市場分現(xiàn)匯交易和期匯交易兩種。一個法國人要把錢寄 給在紐約的兒子，此時發(fā)生的就是一筆典型的現(xiàn)匯買賣。法國人 買進(jìn)美元現(xiàn)匯，立時進(jìn)行交割（盡管按商業(yè)慣例，允許其在2天內(nèi)實際交割，使他有足夠時間做成此交易）。當(dāng)然，法國人是用本幣 即法國法郎來購買美元的。
期匯交易是規(guī)定在將來某日交割的交易。例如，向美國出售豐田牌轎車的日本出口商，按銷售合約的規(guī)定，知道在6個月后將 收到一筆一定金額的美元外匯。為了保護(hù)自己免受將來出售美元 外匯時匯率可能波動的風(fēng)險，可事先向日本的銀行賣出6個月后 才交割的美元，換回日元。這筆賣出美元、買進(jìn)日元的遠(yuǎn)期交易無 需當(dāng)時交付，而是在6個月后才交付,但是匯價卻在簽訂遠(yuǎn)期外匯合約之日已經(jīng)定死。遠(yuǎn)期外匯買賣有30天期的，90天期的或180 天期的，有些主要貨幣還可以有1年期的，甚至1年以上期的。
外匯銀行在簽訂這份遠(yuǎn)期外匯合約后總要再簽訂另一反向合 約做抵補保值，目的是不讓本銀行出現(xiàn)敞口頭寸。例如，銀行買進(jìn) -筆30天的遠(yuǎn)期外匯，就應(yīng)立即賣出一筆同金額的30天遠(yuǎn)期外匯。不言而喻，銀行想從這兩筆交易中賺取利潤。外匯銀行如果 不軋平頭寸，那就是在做投機(jī)了。如果買進(jìn)期匯同時卻不賣出期匯，就會出現(xiàn)長余頭寸；反之，賣出遠(yuǎn)期外匯，同時卻不買進(jìn)遠(yuǎn)期外 匯，就會出現(xiàn)短缺頭寸。此時一旦匯價驟然發(fā)生變動，后果將不堪 設(shè)想。現(xiàn)舉例說明之。假設(shè)一家法國出口公司與一家美國進(jìn)口公司簽訂合約，規(guī)定在6個月后出口一筆貨，總金額值1百萬法國法郎。當(dāng)匯價是1法國法郎兌換22美分時，法國公司可望到時候收 到220 OOO美元。如果6個月內(nèi)法郎價格上揚，漲到1法郎兌換23 美分，而該法國公司事先又沒有賣出遠(yuǎn)期美匯，它就只能收到956 521.72法郎。貨物原價為1 000 000法郎，此時，法國出口公司就要損失43 478.28法郎Q
遠(yuǎn)期匯價有兩種表示法，一種是直接表示法，另一種是在現(xiàn)匯價的基礎(chǔ)上加升水額或減貼水額。下面列舉的幾個數(shù)字是某年某 月某日英鎊遠(yuǎn)期匯價的直接表示法，其中買入價是指銀行買進(jìn)1 英鎊付出美元的價格，賣出價是指銀行賣出1英鎊收進(jìn)美元的價格。
買入價 賣出價 賣出價
1月遠(yuǎn)期 $1.7895 $1.7915
3月遠(yuǎn)期 $1.7695 $1.7715
6月遠(yuǎn)期 $1.7445 $ 1.7465
套匯是把資金從一種貨幣調(diào)換成另一種貨幣以便從兩種貨幣 匯價的差價中牟利的一種活動。譬如，由于當(dāng)?shù)毓┣箨P(guān)系的影響， 倫敦的美元匯率與紐約的美元匯率出現(xiàn)了差異。如倫敦的美元匯 率略高，此時套匯者就會趕快在紐約用英鎊買進(jìn)美元，然后在倫敦 賣出美元、買進(jìn)英鎊。這種套匯活動只有在電報費手續(xù)費等交易 費用能夠補上后并且有微利可賺時才有意義。要想靠套匯賺大錢是不可能的，因為當(dāng)今世界上的電訊聯(lián)系十分方便，人人都可以了 解兩地的行情，也就是說，人人都能有這種賺錢的機(jī)會。
另一種套匯活動是套利。英國貨幣市場上的利率如比美國貨 幣市場上的高出2個百分點，此時，美國的投資者就會把美元換成英鎊在英國按當(dāng)?shù)刎泿沤韴錾系睦释顿Y；然而，英鎊遠(yuǎn)期匯率的 貼水為1％，所以，美國的投資者將來買回美元時要多付升水額1%，就是說，還要減去1%。就算這樣，他還能賺1%。當(dāng)然，這種套匯活動只有在兩地沒有外匯管制，沒有諸如限制資金調(diào)撥的情況下才能做。有些國家的政府有時是有這些限制的，目的是為了 保護(hù)本國的外匯黃金儲備和維持國際收支的平衡。
外匯市場是世界貿(mào)易中非常有價值的機(jī)制，其主要功能是減少匯率波動和貨幣平價變動（即升值、貶值)所產(chǎn)生的風(fēng)險。
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